(PatriotHeadline.com)- A new study reveals that presidential polls may be not very representative of voters’ true feelings about the major candidates, which could be great news for President Donald Trump.
A study conducted by CloudResearch LLC found that Republicans and independent voters are twice as likely to not give their true opinion during a telephone polling questionnaire about their candidate preference in the 2020 presidential election. This means that many of the recent polls that are showing Democratic candidate Joe Biden with a lead over Trump could be very misleading.
According to the study, 10.5% of independent voters and 11.7% of Republican voters said they wouldn’t give their true opinion for a telephone opinion poll. By contrast, only 5.4% of Democratic voters said they wouldn’t give their true opinion.
The co-CEO and chief research officer of the company, Leib Litman, said one of the common reasons people said they wouldn’t share their true opinions is “it’s dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint.”
The survey was conducted online. It asked people who participated what their political preference was and then asked them about how they felt about telling pollsters on a phone call who they truly supported for president. At the end of the poll, it asked these same participants who their actual preference was.
The only characteristic that consistently correlated with a reluctance to share their true opinion was political party preference. Leib says the study found no correlation with income, education, race or age. Not only that, but CloudResearch did the study two different ways and got the same basic result both times.
This reference to “shy Trump” voters is something that existed during the 2016 election as well. It’s one of the reasons some pundits have said that Trump was behind in polling to Democrat Hillary Clinton leading up to the election, but then emerged victorious on election night.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research studied this subject extensively following the 2016 election. According to that study:
“Some Trump voters who participated in pre-election polls did not reveal themselves as Trump voters until after the election, and they outnumbered late-revealing Clinton voters. This finding could be attributable to either late deciding or misreporting (the so-called Shy Trump effect) in the pre-election polls.”
Typically speaking, the study said “those who admit changing their minds more or less wash out, breaking about evenly between the Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate.”
But that’s not what happened at all in the 2016 election. Voters who changed their answers after the election cast their vote for Trump by a whopping 16% margin — a big reason why pre-election polls differed so greatly from the actual outcome of the election.
A swing of even half of that level would result in Trump being way ahead of Biden in polling. The most recent national polls show that Biden had a 4-point lead over Trump, which is well within the margin of error.
If there really are a lot of “shy Trump” voters once again, as there were in 2016, things could be looking up for the Republican candidate.